Fantasy 40/40: 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 30 First Basemen (1B)
A lot of the fantasy sites this season are claiming that first base is super deep and you can wait for a slugger in the later rounds. This is true. If you don’t mind having Billy Butler, Paul Konerko or Gaby Sanchez as your main guy. Personally, I won’t wait that long and will grab one earlier rather than later. Most likely, I’ll leave the first two rounds with a major bat and and fill my CI infield spots with a 1B in the mid to late rounds. Here’s my top 30.
TOP 30 FIRST BASEMEN
- Albert Pujols STL – 2011 Projections: .320-42-128-116-15. So you don’t think I’m worth $300 mil? Prince Albert is set to be paid like a King. The best player on the planet is in a contract year. Enough said.
- Joey Votto CIN – .315-34-110-100-11. The reigning NL MVP had a career year in 2010 and is looking to add to his numbers in 2011. Scary thing? He should.
- Adrian Gonzalez BOS – .300-38-118-110-0. This former Padre has moved from arguably the worst-hitter’s park in the Majors to possibly one of the best. Fenway Park was tailor-made for sweet swinging lefties. Gonzalez is not only one of the best hitter’s in the game, but yes, he’s also lefty. Stacked somewhere in between Crawford, Pedroia and Youkilis, Gonzalez will finally be recognized with the league’s elite. I know he has some lingering health questions, but I’d rather roll the dice with AGON than with this next guy. I might be crazy, but 40 to 44 HR wouldn’t surprise me. I might be crazy, but Gonzalez wins an MVP in Boston. Sometime.
- Miguel Cabrera DET – .320-38-120-105-3. Sir, would you like a cab tonight? F#$% Y&U! Been there, done that. The difference is that I’m not the starting first baseman for the Detroit Tigers and making $100 million dollars. His stock has declined Enron style and I’m not sure I will be owning Cabrera in 2011. At some point though, you will ask yourself is the risk worth it? Early second round-ish? He shouldn’t pass pick number 7 or 8 in mixed drafts. If he does, snatch him up.
- Mark Teixeira NYY – .280-35-110-100-0. Like I said, I’m probably going to maneuver my way through the draft and end up with someone else at 1B besides Cabrera. Teixeira is a guy I would consider taking. He’s automatic for 30 HR and 100 RBI. He also plays just about every game and is what you’re typically looking for with an early pick – safe production.
- Ryan Howard PHI – .266-38-118-95-2. I wanted to put him in the TOP 5, but Teixeira’s consistency was the deciding factor. Yes, he had a down season. And yes, he’s a little older. But he put up 58, 47, 48 and 45 HR before last year’s 31. Getting to 40 is completely reasonable.
- Prince Fielder MIL – .270-37-106-96-1. Another guy in a contract year, Fielder will hit his 36 HR and his super agent Scott Boras will find him a new home, one that will pay him. A lot. I could see taking Prince before Howard.
- Kevin Youkilis BOS – .309-29-103-98-4. A lot of sites have Youk ranked real high. Like TOP 5 high. While I like Youkilis and the fact that he’ll qualify at 3B soon, he’s never hit more than 29 HR or drove in more than 115 RBI in a single season. Not sure I take him before Fielder, but his .300 BA helps and I can’t deny the potential for TOP 5 at both 1B and 3B.
- Adam Dunn CHW – .256-42-108-97-0. The Big Donkey moves from the NL to the AL and into a smaller park in Chicago. New pitchers to learn, new position to deal with. But I still like Dunn to reach 40 HR once again.
- Justin Morneau MIN – .294-28-98-85-0. He’s coming off a concussion from last season and should return to normal. Should. You just never know, but I could see .300-30-100-90.
- Kendry Morales LAA – .286-27-90-82-1. These are the type of players who can help you win a league. Coming off of injury, people will be hesitant to make the leap of faith, making his ADP to fall. Count me as one of the nervous. Like I said earlier, there are ways you can strategize your way through the draft so you have a solid first baseman without any question marks.
- Billy Butler KC – .315-19-92-79-0. I was a big Billy Butler fan two years ago. I was a big fan of Billy Butler last year. I am a big Billy Butler fan this year. His HR, RBI and R totals all went down, yes. But he increased his walks by 11 and decreased his strikeouts by 25 while increasing his BA and OBP. While that didn’t help your fantasy team last year, it means young Billy Butler is maturing as a hitter. And basically, he didn’t have much help in KC. Like the Reds, KC has its talent coming. KC IN 2013!
- Paul Konerko CHW – .275-29-90-79-0. The old vet played real well last season while trying to save a spot in Chicago. He’s got his contract – I just don’t see him repeating 2010 – look for a dropoff in stats in 2011. But if he’s there in the middle rounds, scoop up the 30 HR potential.
- Buster Posey SF - I covered him with the TOP 30 catchers but he qualifies at 1B too.
- Carlos Pena CHC – .240-34-88-70-4. Moving into Wrigley, Pena will look to improve on his BA from 2010 while hitting balls onto Sheffield Ave. I think he could hit 38-40 HR. I don’t expect .250 – and .240 may be a little too generous. Power is scarce this season so pair Pena with an average guy sometime during your draft if you decide to draft him.
- Aubrey Huff SF – .275-25-85-80-5. There are a lot of guys in the mix at CI and corner OF in SF. He’s likely to start at 1B but could lose some ABs to Posey against tough lefties at 1B.
- Carlos Lee HOU – .270-22-90-70-3. El Caballo is getting viejo but he’s still bucking. Not a very good lineup in Houston, but someone other than Hunter Pence has to collect some numbers.
- Ike Davis NYM - .272-24-80-78-4. This super sophomore will look to increase numbers and should with a full year of ABs coupled with the return of a healthy Beltran and Bay.
- Gaby Sanchez FLA - .280-22-90-75-8. This second-year Marlin will look to improve on his impressive rookie season. He’s in a young lineup in Miami and should add to his 2010 stats.
- Mike Napoli TEX - Already posted his info with the catchers, I think Napoli gets back to 20 HR with potential for a couple more.
- Michael Cuddyer MIN – .275-18-84-84-5. Like everyone else, Cuddyer saw a dip in numbers leaving the Homerdome. He qualifies at 1B and OF which doesn’t hurt and will move back to his regular position in the OF. While I don’t think he hits 32 again, he may reach 20.
- Derrek Lee BAL – .270-20-80-75-1. Baltimore has basically a new infield with Lee serving as the veteran presence. He wasn’t right all year in 2010 and will look to stay healthy this season playing for Buck in Baltimore.
- Lance Berkman STL – .265-18-75-70-3. Had his worst year in 2010 while moving teams and leagues. He’s back in the NL Central and will play the OF all year. Right. Not sure the Cardinals got the memo about his nickname, the Big Puma, not really referring to his cat-like speed or agile defense.
- Mitch Moreland TEX – .275-19-70-65-6. I like Moreland to be sleeper for 20 HR. But then again, I liked Smoak for 20 last year. He should be on the right side of the platoon with newly acquired Mike Napoli and maybe a candidate for up to 450 ABs. Then again, there’s also the Michael Young scenario.
- James Loney LAD – .285-15-89-70-9. Not the slugger people thought he’d be, Loney is more Sean Casey than Fred McGriff. Won’t clobber 25 HR, might never jack 20, but still drives in runs can be used in all NL onlys and deeper mixed leagues at CI or U.
- Justin Smoak SEA – .265-20-80-70-4. I know he didn’t quite shine in his short stint in Seattle. But he was a highly touted prospect ranked as high as #2 last year by Baseball America (Texas). He’s got 25 HR upside even in spacious Safeco.
- Freddie Freeman ATL – .275-14-74-65-3. Freeman continues the insurgence of young talent at the first base position in the NL East. Sanchez, Davis, now Freeman. Also, a year after youngster Jason Heyward made his debut, Atlanta makes the call on its second prized prospect. While I don’t see 20 HR this season, Freeman has a solid lefty stroke that will play in Atlanta for the next ten years.
- Garrett Jones PIT – .260-22-68-65-4. Well, Jones regurgitated his HR production of two years ago by posting 21 HR in 2010. He’s a 20 HR guy but not sure if he’s the .293 hitter of ‘09 or the .246 hitter of ‘10. Probably somewhere in the middle, let’s say .275.
- Kila Ka’aihue KC – .255-20-70-60-0. Did a little sleeper write up on him. Click here or scroll a little further down the page.
- Ty Wigginton COL – .260-20-60-60-2. Wiggy leaves the AL East and heads west to Colorado where he will bring his 20 HR power and will play a bunch of 1B, 2B and 3B. He’s super glue/utility guy and could see close to 450 ABs.
Where the hell is Adam Lind on this list?
Adam Lind would have been on the list, but didn’t qualify there before the season started. He was only eligible at DH/U, but I guess I could have added him knowing he was going to start there. Like adding Youkilis to the 3B list. But I think he’d be somewhere between 12-15.