Fantasy 40/40: 2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Pedro Alvarez
Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT
His teammates call him Pedro Cerrano. Not really. This kid from NYC has raw power with some to spare. In 95 games last season, Alvarez hit 16 HR and drove in 64 RBI. With a young lineup in Pittsburgh, Alvarez will be asked to help carry the load.
A projected season of 25 HR and 90 RBI seems reachable and very possible. He hit a HR every 21.6 ABs last season, a mark that is just under David Wright’s HR per 20.2 AB and Adrian Beltre’s HR per 21 AB rate.
In the minors? He had a rate of one HR per 18.6 ABs in ‘10 (66 games/242 ABs) and one HR every 17.2 ABs in ‘09 (A+ and AA).
If he gets 540 ABs in 2011, and he hits at a HR every 21.6 (2010 MLB rate), he’ll be good for 25 HR. Downside? He’s only in his second year and struck out 119 times in 347 ABs last season. On the Mount Rushmore of Whiffers, he joins Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds and Ryan Howard. If you’re in a head to head league where you’re penalized for K’s, his value might slip a bit. Regardless, once the elites are off the board, this Vanderbilt product should be available in the middle rounds – with an upside potential of 30-35 HR.