Fantasy 40/40: 2010 Cactus League Breakdown: Chicago Cubs
Well, there’s always next year Cubs fans… I mean, this is our year Cubs fans! It seems like it’s the same ol’ story, every season. ”This is the year we win it all, World Series Champs baby!” So optimistic and hopeful you are – like a Dicky V. interview – Just to watch your dreams fall through the cracks as Prince Albert, Wainwright, Carpenter and Co. take the Central title.
Stranger things have happened… Northern Iowa beat Kansas. Ohio beat Georgetown. I’m sorry, Ohio spanked Georgetown. The Arizona Cardinals made the Super Bowl. Actually, if you’re old enough, you never thought the Saints would ever win a Super Bowl in our lifetime. It’s like the Clippers winning a NBA title. And Daniel LaRusso did beat Johnny 
Lawrence at the All-Valley Tournament, the Japanese nephew of Sato in a ring of death AND Mike Barnes, All-World Karate Badass… The Cubs could do it.
With a squad full of old veterans and overpaid journeymen, the Cubs have a small window that is closing as you finish reading this line. Expiring contracts and new ownership equals turnover and a new team in 2011; so enjoy this season and prepare for re-buliding in the near future.
Here is a fantasy rundown of the Chicago Cubs, the next team I breakdown for the 2010 Cactus League Preview.
PLAYERS THAT WILL BE DRAFTED:
HITTERS:
Derrek Lee – 1B – This old tank keeps on truckin’. He’s in the last year of his contract and probably won’t be back with the team in 2011. His numbers constantly fluctuate – but consistantly stay within a certain range. Lee will give you 22 to 26 HR with 90 RBI and 90 RUNS with a .290-.300 BA.
Aramis Ramirez – 3B - The complete opposite of D Lee, Aramis can’t stay on the field. When he’s getting AB’s, Ramirez is still a good fantasy option at the hot corner. He has player options left on his contract, if I were a fan, I’d hope he declines. I tend to stay away from health risks – Draft Ramirez if you need a 3B, but don’t expect more than 400 AB.
Ryan Theroit – SS – The Riot! This guy continues to playball and produce fantasy numbers at a historically weak offensive position. Not much for power, Theriot will score you 80 RUNS, steal 20 bases and bat close to .300. Be careful – if the Cubs are out by July, look for stud SS Starlin Castro to make his debut.
Geovany Soto – C – Soto had completely different seasons in the last two, struggling at the plate in ‘09. His injuries and pains seemed to have subsided; looking leaner and meaner this spring. I expect Soto to have a bounce back year in 2010 and would take him after the big boys at C are off the board, possibly in the TOP 8.
Alfonso Soriano – OF - The last remaining, active member of the 40/40 club, Soriano is getting old, fast. His listed age this year is 34 but would you be surprised if he pulled a Tejada was really 37? His numbers have all regressed the last 3 seasons and look for that trend to continue this year. He’ll get drafted because of name and reputation. I’d rather have Nolan Reimold, McCutchen, Pence, C. Gonzalez, Torri Hunter, Adam Jones…
Marlon Byrd – OF – New to Wrigley in 2010, Byrd takes over in center for the Cubbies. He comes over from hitter-friendly Arlington, but should put decent numbers in this lineup. Not really a mixed league guy, aim to take Byrd in the end game or as an NL only outfielder.
Jeff Baker – 2B – Another NL only option, Baker is the super utility guy for Sweet Lou. He will platoon at 2B with Fontenot and fill in the other infield positions. With Jake Fox gone, Baker will probably see ample time filling in for Aramis Ramirez when he takes his spot on the DL. He has some pop in his bat too to boot.
Mike Fontenot – 2B – Just mentioned, Fontenot is just an NL only option. He’ll be 30 this year and probably coming off his worst statistical year. I could see prospect Castro taking over SS with Theriot moving over to 2B come August.
Kosuke Fukudome – OF – The Japanese import arrived on the scene two years ago with a game tying HR in the ninth in Wrigley. His Cub legend was cemented that day. Because of that, he has been given the pass on his production, as Fukudome is more of an NL only option. Nothing special: 14HR, 50 RBI, 70 RUNS and a .260 BA.
PITCHERS:
Carlos Zambrano – SP – Big Z seems like he’s been around forever; only turning 29 this year. His numbers and health have been up and down the last couple years, showing little stability. He’s their ace and number one, just not sure if I’d take him. I like him, just not that much. If he slides on draft day, don’t be afraid to snatch him up. He’s currently being drafted with the likes of Oswalt, Dempter, Garza and Shields (i’d rather have any of those 4).
Ted Lilly – SP – Mr. Underrated, Lilly continues to produce reliable fantasy numbers for owners. Not really a sexy name, Lilly has great trends and will give you 190 INN and 170 K. Throw in 12 to 15 wins and he puts up numbers like Kazmir and Burnett – but is being drafted almost 100 picks afterward or 7 to 10 rounds later. Remember his name and find a gem late on draft day.
Ryan Dempster – SP – Another guy like Lilly who everyone passes on or forgets about. Dempster made the transition from the bullpen two years ago and in all reality, has been Chicago’s most reliable starter. He gives you 32 starts, 200 INN and at least 172 K in the last 2 seasons. AGAIN, Remember his name and find a gem late on draft day.
Randy Wells – SP – A former Rule 5 pick, former catcher, Wells was the feel good story last year for the Southsiders. He put up double digit wins as a rookie and proved he could grind and grind. I don’t know if he will ever be a 1 or 2, but Wells could be useful as a late round pick, possible flier – definitely worth a NL only pick.
Carlos Marmol – RP – Goodbye Kevin Gregg, hello closer role. He has great stuff and movement, but that’s the problem too. His WHIP last year was 1.46 and Sweet Lou might not be able to handle all the close calls. Marmol is the closer, but must prove his worth and consistency. Don’t draft Marmol before round 15 in any draft. Never take closers early and if you do, don’t use the pick on Marmol.
SLEEPERS:
Lilly & Dempster – SP - Like I said, take them in the later rounds when everyone else is looking for prospects and keepers. Both will give you close to 200 INN and 180 K – numbers like Burnett and Oswalt – just 8 rounds later.
Aramis Ramirez – 3B – If he stays healthy and can accumulate 600 PA somehow, he can go for 35 HR, 100 RBI and 90 RUNS.
BUSTS:
Aramis Ramirez – 3B - If he gets injured and can’t accumulate 300 PA somehow, he can go for 10 HR, 45 RBI and 35 RUNS.
Alfonso Soriano – OF - Just don’t do it. Pass on him for me. Out of principle.
PROSPECTS:
Starlin Castro – SS – Baseball America has this 20-year-old as the number #1 prospect in the Cub farm system. His scouting reports say he hits well, using all fields as he makes contact at a high rate. He was voted the best defensive shortstop in the Florida State League last year by the other managers – and that was with 39 errors. He needs to fill out and polish some aspects (only 20 people), but Castro is their next Shawon Dunston – a stud to fill the SS spot for years. Draft him in all dynasty and keeper formats.
Josh Vitters – 3B – The other half of the Cub future left side, Vitters is a young stud at the hot corner. His potential is 30 HR with a .300 BA. He will take over for Aramis whenever he decides to leave – probably not in 2010. Take Vitters in keeper and dynasty leagues.
