Fantasy 40/40: 2010 Cactus League Breakdown: Texas Rangers
Today, we continue our Cactus League Breakdown and take a look at the Texas Rangers. Nolan Ryan has taken a huge chunk of responsibility and is beginning to shape and mold the Rangers into a team that will to compete for an AL West crown year in and year out. The lineup is capable of scoring runs and the farm system is starting to yield young talent and impact players. The question in Texas is always about pitching and whether or not their staff can carry them towards a post season birth. Manager Ron Washington has had some recent issues and has been a bit of a distraction for their players – regardless of what he or the players say or deny. Bottom line is that he is still there and they will continue to answer questions until they start winning. Here’s their Cactus League breakdown. Let’s take a look at the Rangers and their 2010 fantasy outlook.
PLAYERS THAT WILL BE DRAFTED:
HITTERS:
IAN KINSLER – 2B – One of the elites at his position, Kinsler is Fantasy 40/40 material. He was 31HR/31SB last year and has potential for higher numbers. Kinsler’s BA last year might have been a bit of a hiccup, but he did hit .318 in 2008. And although I don’t see him as a .300 hitter, he should come in somewhere in the .270’s. Take him after Utley and take 30/30 to the bank.
NELSON CRUZ – OF – I was big on Nelson Cruz last year and he did not disappoint me. He hit 33 HR last year and stole 20 bags. He is a power/speed guy I targeted and he should be targeted this year as well. He won’t be much of a secret this season, but take him and expect 25/20 with a higher RBI and R total than ‘09.
JOSH HAMILTON – OF – I don’t know what it is, but I’ve never been a fan of Josh Hamilton. Not to say I don’t like him as a person or his tremendous after school story, but for fantasy purposes, I’ve always passed on this lefty slugger. He hit 900 HR in a home run derby at Yankee Stadium – I know, I know. But, he’s always hurt and can’t stay on the diamond. Until he proves it, draft him late based on value if he falls and hope you get 400 AB.
MICHAEL YOUNG – 3B – The older statesman of the group, Young shifted to 3B last year to make room for slick fielding rookie Elvis Andrus. The team was better as a result and Young had a resurgence in HR with 22. He also hit .322 and should see a little dip in 2010, but Young is still a capable and serviceable 3B and should provide another 600 PA.
ELVIS ANDRUS – SS – The man that replaced Yound at SS silenced critics by leading all AL rookies in hits, runs, total bases, triples and stolen bases. He has a future gold glove in him and is a TOP 10 SS in 2010. He has great upside and is a cheap source for 40 SB. You can lump him in with the other speedy SS like A. Escobar, E. Cabrera
JULIO BORBON – OF – Another burner that Texas has promoted, Borbon is a former Rocky Topper that has a legit game. His speed wasn’t a fluke and should also steal you 30 to 40 bases in 2010 – possibly more if he hits 1st and gets the automatic green light. He is a slap-hitting oufielder in the mold of Juan Pierre, but Borbon provides more power and double digit potential. I like Borbon this year and you could probaly steal him somewhere in the 20’s come draft day. You can find his 2010 player projection and outlook here.
VLADIMIR GUERRERO – OF/DH – Vladdy Dodi, We Likes To Party, We Don’t Cause Trouble, We Don’t Bother Nobody… I don’t know why, but I always say that. Vlad leaves Anaheim for another AL West ballclub in 2010. He stays within the division and gets a chance to mash against his former employer 19 times a year. He’s getting older and his numbers will never be all-world again, but should serve as a decent bat in mid to late rounds – he is playing in Arlington after all… I got the Johnson baby powder and Cool Water cologne.
CHRIS DAVIS – 1B - A much hyped-prospect going into 2009. Davis never reached his level of expectations and was sent down. He was overrated a bit last year, but will most likely be underrated in 2010. He is most definitely an AL only option and a possible sleeper in mixed leagues. The kid has power and prospect Justin Smoak barring down on him, but Texas feels Davis has 30-40 HR a season in him.
JAROD SALTALAMACCHIA – C – Salty didn’t do much in 2009, kinda of a bust, and looks to split time with another catching prospect in Taylor Teagarden. I see both as AL only options – but monitor their status and AB distribution as the season goes on. For re-draft leagues, I probably take Saltalamacchia; in dynasty or keeper leagues, Teagarden is my choice. If I have to choose one to start.
PITCHERS:
RICH HARDEN – SP – When healthy, this guy has some of the nastiest stuff in baseball. Harden will provide 20 starts for you – hopefully, he can find a health streak and produce 180-200 INN. He averages over a K per inning and has the stuff to be a TOP 10 fantasy pitcher. His health record suggest you can find Harden in the mid rounds – if you stays healthy, he’s the type of guy to carry a staff.
SCOTT FELDMAN – SP - Feldman tweaked his motion in ‘09 and saw great results. The youngster won 17 games and had a respectable 4.09 ERA in a very hitter friendly ballpark. He will slide into the 2-spot in the rotation and should win double digit games. Don’t expect 200 K and a sub 4.00 ERA – but 14 wins, 120 K and a late round flier.
CJ WILSON – SP – The former stopper of the Rangers is auditioning for the rotation in 2010 and should provide decent numbers for fantasy owners. He has good stuff and averages a strikeout per inning, but not quite sure how he will hold up with all the innings. On one end, he might end up back in the pen – on the other side could be a Ryan Dempster-type breakout. Possibly take a late round guess on Wilson in mixed leagues; I think he’s already won the job.
COLBY LEWIS – SP – Lewis has returned from a stint in Japan to the team that originally drafted him. He improved his pitching and should grab a rotation spot at the backend. Take Lewis in AL only drafts and check on him throughout the season.
DEREK HOLLAND – SP – Holland has all the tools to be a good pitcher at the major league level. He’s only 23 and has a lot of learning to do. Holland should have a shot at the fifth spot, but with so many other options, it’s tough to guarantee he will break with the club as a starter.
TOMMY HUNTER – SP – Hunter has a sore rib cage and will miss the beginning of the season. Once healthy, Hunter should battle for a rotation spot due to his performance in ‘09. Hunter is an AL only option right now and a possible sleeper to grab if you need a pitcher late in mixed leagues.
FRANK FRANCISCO – CL – Francisco is the Ranger closer and should see a bunch of save opps in 2010. He is in the group with Aardsma, Franklin, Fuentes and Soriano.
SLEEPERS:
JULIO BORBON – OF - I think you can grab him in the rounds 20 to 25 and he could give you .290-10-45-85-40. That’s aight.
CHRIS DAVIS – 1B – He was overrated last year and is underrated this year. Possible 35 HR candidate.
BUSTS:
CHRIS DAVIS – 1B – He is a 35 HR candidate. He hasn’t done it yet however. And he strikes out a lot.
PROSPECTS:
JUSTIN SMOAK – 1B - Chris Davis’ main competition for the 1B job. He is swinging the bat well in the minors and should be up sometime in 2010. Possibly at the 1B spot or DH, Smoak is a smooth swinging kid and should be looked at in all keeper leagues. Many compare and see him in the Mark Teixeira mold – possibly a late rounder in mixed drafts. Yes please.
NEFTALI FELIZ – RP – I have Feliz here because he might end up back in the bullpen. He was to battle for a spot with the starters, but he hasn’t been able to take advantage of the opportunity. Take him in dynasty and keeper leagues as well as AL only leagues. He still offers upside and potential for saves if Francisco ever goes down, but his value will depend on his role.
FOR THE HARDCORE
MARTIN PEREZ – SP – Perez is a hard-throwing, pitching stud that reaches 95 on the gun and has been compared to countryman Johan Santana. He’s only 18 and has ace-type upside. Take him in dynasty leagues – he probably won’t see the majors until at least 2011.
