Fantasy 40/40: THE BLUEPRINT: Fantasy Baseball Draft Advice & Tips
It’s one of my favorite days of the year. Ok, well I’m a big geek and I’m different from you. Or, you’re a big geek and this is one of your favorite days of the year too. Maybe yours is fantasy football draft day. Who knows. Regardless – this is mine. I love draft day; it’s the closest I get to being general manager of my favorite team. I am the owner, general manager and skipper of the 40/40 CLUB, my fantasy name in all of my leagues (3). It’s a combo-tribute to: 1) the best overall, power and speed players in baseball, 2) the rapper/mogul Sean “Jay-Z” Carter and his nightclub and 3) my fascination with the status it all represents. Elite. And that’s what I want my teams to represent. Elite status. Hence, the name of the blog.
For some, this is just another day on the calender. The fourth Saturday in March. An annual get-together or an excuse to hang with some buddies and drink some beers. It’s your one day out of the year your wife lets you out of past curfew.
For normal guys, this is a day you can get away. Away from work. Away from the kids. Away from the grind. The hassles and nagging that accompany marriage and parenthood. It’s a day of freedom and relaxation. Fathers, husbands and boyfriends out there… AS WELL AS mothers, wives and girlfriends – we encourage readers of all sexes and ages here at Fantasy 40/40. An example of this, I bet you “Samantha” would show “Tony” who the real boss is in fantasy baseball. Just a hunch.
She’s really hot and I see a Lady of the Week candidate in the future.
And for the hardcore, this day represents: Championships. Repeating. Revenge. Re-building. A Fresh Start – Depending on the current status and quality of your keepers. The first day in a plan – a vision of winning your league and taking home that illusive trophy for your office mantel.
Most of us fall in-between somewhere. And all the reasons are similar. We play because we like baseball. We play with friends. We play because it’s fun. And we play to win. Win for money or pride. Plain and simple. You get $600, personal happiness, contentment or you get bragging rights for a year. Some prefer the monetary benefit. Some prefer the verbal jabbing and boxing. Doesn’t matter, winning a championship gives it all to you (TIP: IF you have a chance to win your league, always make that trade. Always.)
Although many so-called “experts” claim you can’t win your league at your draft, you can certainly lose it. Basically – do a little reading, research and preparation, and you should be just fine come gameday.
Let’s breakdown some things to remember regarding drafts and drafting:
- Do a little reading. For any level fan, grab a sports section once in a while and take a look at any articles relating to baseball or spring training. Read the articles, look at box scores whenever possible. If you are time strapped, stop and buy a magazine and carry it with you while commuting to work or to school. Take it out on your way home on the train or bus and get familiar with some players. For the kids out there who do nothing, use your Internet Samurai-ness (yeah I said it) and ninja your way into some depth charts, rankings, predictions, cheat sheets. Whatever. The more the better. Knowledge is power. Sidenote: Sorry, just watched G.I. Joe and Snake Eyes is the man. Sienna Miller is also really hot as a brunette in a dark leather onesie wearing teacher glasses.
- Moving on,try to get a decent night of sleep the night before if you can. Like anything else, you don’t want to be tired or hungover during this 6 hour marathon. Be clear-headed and ready to process. Grab breakfast if you can and bunker down. Print out a cheat sheet of the rankings and depth charts. Don’t print out an almanac. Just 1 copy of the rankings. And the latest version of depth charts for all the teams. Bring the least amount of paperwork possible – it will ease the process and make things less confusing. If you’re a laptop guy – go for it. Everyone eats their Oreos their way, choose what’s most comfortable for you.
- Some things I try to remember during any draft: rank my players into tiers or groups, try not to reach or overpay for players, attempt to draft the best overall value possible, evaluate progress and adjust startegies on the fly if necessary.
- If your league has a snake or serpentine method of drafting in place, the first thing that needs to be changed is that. Auction leagues offer more realistic and more entertaining ways of drafting than snake leagues. I have done both and trust me – everyone out there is agreeing with me.
- Draft order has an effect on how your overall squad will look. If you pull the number #1 pick and lock up Albert, you’re probably not going to pick for another, 19,23 or 29 picks depending on the type of league you are in (10,12,15 team). You can automatically shift your attention to the players ranked 15-30. You have a 1B to build around so adjust strategy accordingly. Focus on how you will continue to mold your team – Maybe you target Kinsler/Pedroia and Tulowitzki/Rollins at picks #24 and #25 to play your MI. Or maybe Greinke/Hernandez and Wright/Reynolds/Zimmerman if you wanna go that route.
- If you’re in an auction league, you have to be aware of the market and how much players are going for. It’s easy to get caught up in a bidding war and over pay for favorites, but stay away. These will kill any season. If you think Braun will produce $32 worth of value and get him for $36 – wonderful. You paid a little more to secure an elite talent. But, if you are a diehard Cubs fan and are excited for new Cubbie Marlon Byrd – don’t pay $8 for him since he’s an end-gamer or a $1 guy. He can be replaced. IF you overpay, overpay for the elite, 1st tier talents only.
- While molding your team – track the other squads. What I mean is, pay attention to who has holes at what positions. EXAMPLE. You are in a snake draft and are in need of a 2B and a 3B. You see Wright and Reynolds are left on the board in your top tier. Meanwhile, Phillips, Roberts, Hill, Zobrist, and Cano are all available in tier#2 for 2B. You see that only 3 teams in front of you need a 2B – however, 6 teams need a 3B. Take Wright now and plan on one of those 2B falling to you on the way back, Cano or Hill. Instead of Phillips now and settling for Casey Blake later.
If you are in an auction league, nominate players at positions you already have filled. EXAMPLE. The first player nominated, you purchase the rights to Prince Fielder for $29 because everyone wants to see the bigger names come out. Instead of Hanley, throw out Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard or Adrian Gonzalez – you already have a 1B so let everyone else spend their money; take their chips off the table. Also, mix up the nominatinons with players you covet and players you don’t care for. Keep the others guessing on which players you really want.
- I tend to follow the trend “Don’t pay for saves”. Now, that doesn’t mean I don’t draft a closer at all (sometimes people punt categories). But, I refuse to use a early pick on a closer when saves are found all over the waiver wire every year. Following the “bargain route”, you can easily find guys like Frank Francisco, Kerry Woods, Chad Qualls, Billy Wagner, Leo Nunez, Mike Gonzalez all after the 20th round. Each probably good for at least 20 to 30 saves. If Joe Nathan or Francisco Rodriguez falls to me in the 7th or 8th round – I’m in there like swimwear. But rarely will I draft an elite closer.
- Follow the waiver wire throughout the season. Sounds easy, but this is a time consumer and not everyone has the time. Examples of valuable, undrafted pickups last year that helped team owners to a championship: Ben Zobrist, Garrett Jones, Russell Branyan, Nyjer Morgan, Rajai Davis, Julio Bornon, Chris Coghlan, Johnny Gomes, Erick Aybar, Martin Prado, Jorge De La Rosa, JP Howell, Fernando Rodney, Jason Frasor, David Aardsma.
- After all the reading and preparation you do, realize that fantasy projections can, AT MOST, be 70% correct. That’s with all the historic paperwork and calculations worked in. This says LUCK is entirely involved. Experts know just as much as you and I know – they just have a better educated guess because they watch more baseball or study this stuff a bit more. I look at this stuff a lot. A lot. And I have no idea if Brian Roberts will have 100 runs scored. The point is that your guess is as good as mine – just use some basic building blocks to guide you through this process. To recap, The Blueprint for any championship run or dynasty starts with a couple staples: Study. Be prepared with you materials condensed and ready to go. Watch the waiver wire through out the season. Make smart trades to augment your lineup when needed. And hope Lady Luck is watching over you because no on can project tweaked hammy’s or shoulder soreness. So remember – Have fun with it and enjoy your draft day. It only comes once a year.
I think tiers are better than overall value. this way you can judge when a certain player is worth taking now, albeit he would be a reach and a solid pick 3 rounds later. depends on the situation. and yes, luck has a lot. can’t predict injuries