ON TO THE NEXT ONE: OF Offers SB and Options: 2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Outfield (OF)
It seems every year, a position emerges as the one with the most depth, the most overall talent and the most overall skill. The position offers fantasy owners an opportunity to purchase cheap, quality and valuable pieces for their championship run. This year, the outfield is that position. After calculating and projecting ahead, the players in the outfield are expected to own around 30 to 35 of the TOP 100 overall spots come October – or about one-third. Starting and Relief Pitchers total another 40 out of the 100. Add that up and you get 70 to 75 out of the TOP 100 overall are Pitchers and OF – leaving 25 – 30 TOP players for the other 5 positions. This would tell you the other positions are a littler thinner on talent and therefore, should be targeted and drafted first.
Now, I am not saying pass on Braun or Kemp with the fifth pick; however, talent in the outfield is abundant and replacement value is much easier to find later in the draft. EXAMPLE. Would you be happier with a combo of Jason Bay and Casey McGehee or Ryan Zimmerman and Nelson Cruz? How about Ichiro and Scuturo or Tulowitzki and Adam Dunn or Shane Victorino? All I am saying is that outfield depth is plentiful this year and can be substituted in-and-out in mixed leagues.
Remember, prior to your drafts, attempt to put your players into tiers. Some draft magazines or online sites can do this for you. With Braun and Kemp being in your elite tier, rank and work your way down. By the end, you will be surprised by the amount of end-game fliers that will be available to fill out your winning rosters. If you miss out on speedster Carl Crawford in Round 2 – On To The Next One. You can take Julio Borbon, Rajai Davis or Nyjer Morgan 12 rounds later – all 3 guys of these guys being in the same tier for your rankings. Having done the research, you miss out on player A with 40 SB, but acquire player B with 37 SB 10 rounds later – maybe the butt of a joke from league mates now, but you received better value – better return on investment in the long run.
Oh yeah and never forget, like Afflack said in the movie Boiler Room, “ACT AS IF”. Act as if it wasn’t a mistake when you accidentally took Garrett Jones instead of Adam Jones, the player you really wanted. What I mean is – Always act like you know what you’re doing – in any situation. Never show fear or question yourself in front of the other owners during a draft. They joke at your Denard Span over Manny pick – stay stone faced and know Span will out produce Ramirez by at least $5 this year. Show confidence in yourself and your picks – it portrays you in a certain light and can effect other owners throughout the draft. Pretend like you’re Theo constructing the next fantasy dynasty for a day. Confidence. This does not only apply to fantasy drafts. But I digress…Back to the outfield.
Tier 1
1. Ryan Braun – MIL – The cream of the crop, Ryan Braun has put up ridiculous fantasy numbers over the start of his career. Even his shortened-rookie year, the Hebrew Hammer smacked 34 HR in 463 AB. Now, 26, Braun looks to add to his impressive numbers and his best may be ahead of him. He bats in front of big Prince Fielder which can only help – Take Braun as your first OF off the board come draft day. .318-39-117-108-22.
2. Matt Kemp – LAD – The 1B to Braun’s 1A, Kemp is Fantasy 40/40 material. In his second full year, Kemp put up 26/34 at age 24. He could get to 30/30 this year and the potential to in the future, dare I say it… 40/40. We all know he has the speed to reach 40 SB – the jury is still out on the 40 HR power. Some have taken Kemp before Braun this year. Your call – Do you like Coke or Pepsi? Vanilla or chocolate ice cream? The DH or no DH? Magic or Larry? Braun or Kemp? .297-29-98-96-33.
3. Carl Crawford – TB – This athletic freak put together a nice fantasy year for owners in ‘09 with his .305 BA and 60 SB. Crawford should man LF for the Rays in 2010 with the chance he finishes somewhere else in October. He is a free agent after the year and TB has young Desmond Jennings waiting to replace the 28-year-old. Look for Crawford to produce again – especially this in his walk year. .303-14-71-97-51.
4. Jacoby Ellsbury – BOS – Some have him in front of Crawford, some have him behind him. I have him at 4 because of Crawford’s .300 BA and his double digit power. Ellsbury is a little younger, something to look for in keeper and dynasty leagues. Either way, Ellsbury should steal at least 50, more like 60, hopefully 70. .294-9-58-101-63.
Tier 2
5. Matt Holliday – STL – After all the talk in the off-season, Scott Boras finally landed his $100 million contract for his prized client when St. Louis outbid themselves to secure this leftfielder. My question is how do you now pay Albert in 2011? Or do they? Does this mean he walks? Because he’s going to command at least $30 million a year and $50 million for 2 guys just doesn’t make Cardinal sense. Throw in Carpenter and Wainwright and you are looking at a lot of salary. Holliday will protect Pujols in the lineup and should produce in the senior circuit. .321-27-101-83-13.
6. Grady Sizemore – CLE - Grady was all the talk last fantasy season and has slipped a bit. He had some pain and injuries last year and decided to cut the season short and recover. He is now only 27 and entering his prime years. Look for Grady to bounce back and have a monster year. .278-28-81-96-28.
7. Ichiro Suzuki – SEA - This Japanese wonder continues to hit and hit and hit. He reached 11 HR last year while batting an unworldly .352 at age 35. He won’t steal 40 bases anymore, but should reach 20 maybe 25. In re-draft leagues, Ichiro is a nice pickup for any team. In keeper and dynasty leagues, he seems to lose some value because of his age. .342-10-51-105-29.
8. Justin Upton ARI – “J Up” is about ready for super-stardom. Fresh off a new $51.25 million contract, this kid is 22 and only going to get better. The sky is the limit for this Diamondback and should eventually be a perennial 30/30 outfielder. He will have his growing pains along the way – but should produce numbers while learning and maturing as a person and ballplayer. I’ve had the pleasure of watching a lot of Upton the last couple years – he’s the real deal people. .278-27-87-79-16.
9. Jayson Werth – PHI – Werth is another guy in his “walk-year” and should make a lot of dinero next year. He plays for the contending Phillies and has gone 24/20 and 36/20 in the last two years. He offers power and speed while playing in an American League lineup and video game stadium. Look for Werth to have another stellar year. .270-30-86-78-18.
Tier 3
10. Jason Bay -NYM – This Canadian has a new home this spring and looks to continue his hitting in Flushing. Bay signed a 4 year/$66 million dollar deal with a 5th year option. He’s proved that a big city, high expectations and September baseball are all things he can deal with and looks comfortable doing it. Bay will have a nice year if the Mets stars can stay healthy. .260-30-104-91-11
11. Curtis Granderson – NYY – Another newbie to the Big Apple, Granderson calls another NYC stadium home. Traded from the cash-strapped Tigers, Granderson basically replaces Damon in the Yankee and vice-versa. While younger than Damon, I still think Damon was a “better fit” for that lineup. Fantasy wise, no comparison. .264-27-66-96-18.
12. Adam Lind – TOR - Lind was not as highly touted as fellow Toronto prospect Travis Snider, but out-slugged him last year to a fine rookie campaign. Lind, 26, hit .305 with 35 HR and 102 RBI. He could meet or exceed his numbers – but temper expectations. Take Lind as a TOP 15 OF and pencil him in for 28 HR; maybe 35. .298-27-98-84-1.
13. Nick Markakis – BAL - Markakis is 26 and has had 4 full years in the majors. Last year, Markakis put up .293-18-101-94-6. And that was his worst since his rookie year. He should “bounce back” and reach his norms – I’m expecting him to exceed them and move into the TOP 5 OF category. He’s getting more mature, experience and his surrounding cast is doing the same. Plus, he’s the best hitter on that young team. He’s also posted over 40 doubles the last 3 years before age 25. The list he joins – over 40 doubles in 3 seasons by age 25 include: Gehrig, Musial, Yastrzemski, Mattingly, Pujols, Wright and H. Ramirez (PECOTA). .309-23-106-96-10.
14. BJ Upton – TB – B.J. now might be the “other Upton” as his brother may have passed him on the fantasy stud list. Unlike his brother, B.J. has not found that power button he’s been looking for the past two seasons. After his post-season burst, B.J. regressed and is looking to play up to his potential – shoulder issues were definitely a factor in his down year. Look for him to find his form. .269-18-72-84-40.
15. Andre Ethier LAD - Fork ‘em Devils! This former ASU star is now in the TOP 15 OF and in front of teammate Manny Ramirez. Ethier has more pop than Kemp, but can’t match his speed. He hit 31 HR in ‘09 and a repeat would be awesome for fantasy owners. .288-26-98-90-5.
16. Shin-Soo Choo – CLE – Choo is also another Tribe OF hitting his prime years (Sizemore) and should put up contributing numbers for any contending fantasy squad. He is a 20/20 guy, or was in ‘09 at least – while batting .300. Look to draft Choo in rounds 6-10 after all the popular players are gone. Read a 2010 player profile here. .290-18-82-87-19.
Tier 4
17. Bobby Abreu – LAA -
Continues to put up quality numbers into his 50’s. .282-16-99-90-22.
18. Adam Dunn – WAS (1B) – Still carries OF eligibility. Bonus. .264-38-100-90-2.
19. Ben Zobrist – TB (2B) – What I just said about Dunn. Kind of difficult to predict – similar to Aaron Hill. .280-21-74-74-14.
20. Carlos Lee – HOU – El Cabbalo. Still one of my favorite nicknames right next to his teammates, The Big Puma. .301-24-101-63-4.
21. Josh Hamilton – TEX – Can he stay healthy? .271-18-70-62-11.
22. Shane Victorino – PHI – 10HR/30SB guy. .291-13-60-96-27.
23. Nelson Cruz – TEX – 32/20 last year. 30/30 possible; so is 25/15. .279-27-84-71-18.
Tier 5
24. Carlos Quentin – CHW – One and done? .258-22-80-74-5.
25. Nyjer Morgan – WAS - Sleeper alert. .291-4-39-83-37.
26. Denard Span – MIN - Sleeper alert. .304-9-64-95-29
27. Hunter Pence -HOU – Plays hard, doesn’t wear batting gloves and chokes up all the time – I love it. He’s a Fantasy 40/40 guy. .290-25-86-74-12.
28. Alfonso Soriano – CHC – On his downside. .260-19-58-67-17.
29. Manny Ramirez – LAD – See Soriano, Alfonso. .273-17-61-60-2.
30. Torii Hunter -LAA – Spiderman’s numbers are on the steady decline. .276-20-73-62-14.
31. Raul Ibanez – PHI – Ibanez is one year older and matching last year’s numbers may be a bit of a stretch. .268-21-79-71-2.
Tier 6
32. Andrew McCutchen – PIT – Sleeper alert. You can also read his 2010 FANTASY PROJECTION. 33. Johnny Damon – DET 34. Adam Jones -BAL - 20/15 potential. 35. Michael Cuddyer – MIN 36. Julio Borbon – TEX – Sleeper alert; 2010 article here. 50 SB upside. 37. Juan Pierre – CHW - Sleeper alert. 50 SB upside. 38. Carlos Beltran – NYM – Missing April and maybe most of May.
Tier 7
39. Nate McClouth – ATL 40. Brad Hawpe – COL 41. Rajai Davis – OAK – Sleeper alert. 50 SB upside. 42. Carlos Gonzalez – COL – also has a 2010 Projection spotlight. 43. Jay Bruce – CIN - Sleeper alert. 44. Franklin Gutierrez – SEA – Sleeper alert. 45. Chris Coghlan – FLA 46. Delmon Young – MIN – Sleeper alert.
Tier 8
47. Ryan Ludwick – STL 48. Brad Hawpe – COL 49. Lastings Milledge – PIT 50. Magglio Ordonez – DET 51. Jason Heyward – ATL - Sleeper alert. Keeper/Dynasty must have. If he wins RF job, he skyrockets on this list into TOP 30. Find Heyward’s 2010 Prospect Projections here. 52. Drew Stubbs – CIN – Sleeper alert. 20/30 potential. 53.Vernon Wells – TOR. 54. Nolan Reimold – BAL – Great value.
Tier 9
55. Dexter Fowler – COL – Sleeper alert. 30 SB potential. 56. J.D. Drew – BOS 57. Cameron Maybon – FLA 58. Garrett Jones – PIT 59. Colby Rasmus – STL - Sleeper alert. 60. Juan Rivera – LAA. 61. Jeff Francouer – NYM 62. Cody Ross – FLA - Great value.
Tier 10
63. Marlon Byrd – CHC 64. Mike Cameron – BOS 65. Carlos Gomez – MIN 66. Corey Hart – MIL 67. Nick Swisher – NYY 68. Josh Willingham – WAS 69. Chris Young – ARI 70. Kyle Blanks – SD – Sleeper alert. 30 HR potential.
