Fantasy 40/40: 2010 Cactus League Breakdown: Los Angeles Dodgers
I’m out here in sunny Arizona for the Cactus League where pitchers and catchers have just begun their new year. The Cactus League is located in the southwest as oppose to its sister league, The Grapefruit League which is in Florida for the uneducated. I will be doing some analyzing of players and lineups over the course of the next few weeks, providing some information on possible sleepers, busts and prospects from each team. Today, we will breakdown the Los Angeles Dodgers and their 2010 projections.
Players That Will Be Drafted:
Hitters
1. Matt Kemp – OF - Fantasy superstar in the making. This guy is Fantasy 40/40 material. He can hit, hit for power and run with speed. He put up 26HR/34SB in his ‘09 campaign and that was at 24. He has potential to climb to 30/30 this year – and that’s with 100RBI and 90RUNS to boot. 1st RD choice easily, with some taking him before Braun. Tough call people.
2. Andre Ethier – OF - This ASU alum also had a spectacular year in ‘09 and should put up similar numbers. He is currently being taken in the area of Markakis, Upton, Ichiro and his teammate Manny Ramirez in mixed league drafts. He could be had in rounds 4-6. Definitely before Manny.
3. Manny Ramirez – OF - Speaking of Manny, after serving his 50 game suspension last year, ManRam had ordinary numbers and was nothing special. His time might have come and gone with the PED’s. He’s now 38 and his numbers look like they will continue to fall. He is no longer the best OF on his team, more like the 3rd best behind the two young studs. Let someone else take the gamble on Manny and choose someone with upside and age in his corner; someone like Andre Ethier, Jayson Werth, Shin Soo Choo or Adam Lind.
4. James Loney – 1B – It seems Loney has been playing for a long time, amazing he’s only 25, turning 26 in this, his 4th year. Everyone is waiting for Loney to develop some power to match his frame, but we might not see it. His HR totals have been 15, 13 and 13 in the last 3 years. Until we see a major spike in his power trends, continue to see him as a Nick Johnson or a Todd Helton type. Nice average, but not corner infield production we are looking for.
5. Russell Martin – C - Martin was a fantasy gem as C putting up 19HR/21SB in ‘07. As a catcher, that’s a huge advantage over any opponent. Since that season, his numbers have all taken hits and started to come south. As a catcher, the wear and tear could be slowly catching up to Martin. With Blake locked in at 3B, Martin will continue to be the Dodger backstop. He might not be the “flavor of the week” anymore so you may be able to steal Martin later in drafts. Remember, in mixed leagues, catchers are catchers. In an NL only league, Martin can be picked in the group with Montero, Molina and Soto.
6. Casey Blake – 3B - Probably a NL only option. Possibly a CI option in mixed leagues. Since finding regular playing time with he Dodgers, Blake has put up decent numbers. He should have at least one more year of production, but he is 37 and should be on the decline. Like I said, probably more of an NL only option or left for deeper mixed leagues.
7. Rafael Furcal – SS - He is not the player of old and is probably a little bit of a risk at this point of his career. His skills are diminishing and is more of an NL only option. However, if Furcal can find that magic once again, he might be useful in some mixed leagues offering RUNS and some SB help.
Pitchers
1. Jonathan Broxton – C - This house of a man is LA’s premiere closer and possibly a TOP 3 closer. He may end up #1 this year because of opportunity and his K totals. He had 114K in 76 IN and a ridiculously low 0.96 WHIP in ‘09. He gets a lot of work, but his body seems built well enough to handle the work Joe Torre throws his way.
2. Chad Billingsley – SP - Billingsley gets the nod over Kershaw here because we saw what he is capable of last year in the first half. But more like 1A and 1B. Hopefully, Billingsley can maintain it over the course of 35 starts. He has tremendous upside like all the other players on this list. He is only 25 and will be a major piece for the Dodgers going forward if he can produce at a consistent and productive rate.
3. Clayton Kershaw – SP - Another prized prospect from the Dodger organization. Kershaw was only 21 last year making his MLB debut. This kid is a stud and will be the Dodger ace in the near future. In keeper leagues, I love Kershaw. He’s lefty. He had the NL’s lowest hit rate and fifth-highest strikeout rate. Watchout for Kershaw in 2010.
Sleepers
Clayton Kershaw – SP – Not really a sleeper. I am just expecting a big year from him. When it comes to drafting, I typically wait to draft pitchers later, grabbing offense early. But if you’re one of those owners who likes a pitching staff like the Braves rotation in the 90’s, please target Kershaw. If given the option, select him over guys like Peavy or Webb due to age, injury or upside.
Busts
Manny Ramirez – OF - His numbers are all heading in the wrong direction. So are his AB’s due to various reasons. His name may make him an early 4th or 6th RD pick. Let him go. Just say no folks. Now, if he remains there in the 10th round, go get him. But, when drafting, I choose upside and age over name recognition and past performances, especially without PED’s – “You like-a da juice?”
Prospects
Scott Elbert – SP - Elbert was selected as the Dodgers’ Minor League Pitcher of The Year in ‘09. He is a past first round draft pick of the organization and was used in the pen by Joe Torre last year. He should contend for a spot at the back end of the rotation this spring, possibly as a 5th starter. He might be a sleeper in NL only formats because of the value that will come with his clearance-rack price tag on draft day.
