Fantasy 40/40: SHOW ME WHAT YOU GOT: 2010 Prospect Profile: Jason Heyward
So this is what all the kids are talking about these days. Jason Heyward, prized prospect in the Atlanta Braves farm system, is this year’s top prospect, according to Baseball America, MLBtv and countless other medias. He was the 14th pick in 2007 Amateur Baseball Draft. He stands at 6′4”, 220 lbs. He is a five tool player. He has 30/30 potential. He is a scout’s wet dream. And he’s only 20-years-old.
His experience is just 238 Minor League games. In those games, he has hit .318-29 HR-26 SB with a .899 OPS. Got to love the power/speed combo people. Three levels of minor league ball last year. A-AAA. In Heyward’s three stops last year, he just happen to hit .323-17 HR while slugging .555.
The Braves are saying all the right things and giving Heyward a chance to win the RF spot outright in the Spring. He has the tools. He might need a little more seasoning; on the other hand, Heyward is apparently one of the more poised prospects in baseball. The transition may be smoother than everyone thinks with the strong personalities in the Brave clubhouse (B. Cox, Chipper, McCann) to help shape, mold and mentor this kid.
If there was one keeper prospect to own in keeper leagues, this is the guy. Stephen Strasburg might be the guy on the mound, but Heyward is our guy. Remember people, power and speed. But at what cost do we draft Heyward? Or any highly-touted prospect for that matter? Some swear never to draft minor leaguers because 1) you’re rollin the dice on playing time and 2) they usually end up having minimal impact. Others are constantly rebuilding with rookies and farm hands because… they like losing. You can’t contend with a squad full of prospects. But saving bench spots as reserves is completely okay with me. Would you pay $18 this year for guy who might give you $3 worth of return this year, but $30 next year? I don’t know that I would if I want to win this year.
I guess the value of any minor league prospect is in the eye of the beholder. If you can grab a guy like Heyward late in a snake draft, absolutely give him a shot. Especially in keeper leagues. Watch his progress and depending on your league draft date, his average draft position should fluctuate. His time should come in 2010 and maybe earlier than a September call-up this year. But, we do not recommend spending a high to mid round pick on him…. Unless he wins the job outright in March, which I think he has a legitimate shot at doing. If that’s the case… Let the bidding begin.
Projected 2010 stats:
CHONE: .258-9-36-39-4 in 310 AB
CBS: .274-12-45-40-8 in 365 AB
BILL JAMES: .303-17-78-86-11 in 542 AB
A link to a good article by Matt Winkeljohn at SI.com about Heyward.
