NO HOOK. Different Title, Same Song: 1B Deep in 2010: 2010 FANTASY BASEBALL RANKINGS: First Base (1B)
With each preview, I’ve begun to sew together different themes with various Jay-Z track titles. I’ve started to knit the two ideas together into the informational quilt that is fantasy baseball. Yes, for you older folk out there, this is what Sean “Jay-Z” Carter looks like. As I have recently overheard someone say, “he’s that guy who sings that New York song, right?” No. He’s that guy who has “the hottest chick in the game, wearing his chain”(Beyonce). Elite. Do not disrespect him people. And by the way, it’s titled “Empire State of Mind”.
“No Hook”. I went with this Jay-Z track title as the name of this entry because its so fitting, so perfect. I went through his numerous songs and for every title that I came up with, each worked in some way. Made sense to me in some fashion. So this entry couldn’t really have just one name, one title. No one hook or one chorus or one category or one theme. No worries here at 1B people, we get the same results.
“No Hook”. So diverse. Saturated and overflowing with power, skill and talent.
“Coming of Age”. Many of these young titans are finally hitting stride in the Show and maturing as sluggers.
“Change The Game”. Each time one of these 1B comes to the plate, pitchers, catchers and managers all take that extra breath, re-adjust and pray to hit the black or miss. And if the pitcher misses, he misses low and misses away. If not, he just lost the lead on a bomb to leftcenter.
“Takeover”. The men of 1B are taking over and offering plenty of options for potential future owners on the car lot. You have: Elegant. Established. Old-reliable. Value. Brand new models. Pujols. Howard. Teixiera. Fielder. Votto. Morales.
“Threat”. Each year, these guys put up .300-30-100-100. Each AB, these guys have a chance to go yard, drive in runs. Each time to the dish, they’re… a threat… to takeover … and change the game. I’m sorry, I just got caught up in it.
“30 Something”. There are, legitimately, at least 20, possibly 25, 1B this year that can clip the 30 HR plateau. You read that correctly. The 1B position seems to be loaded with talent and in a real good place right now. Can you imagine 30 1B having 20-25HRs? Amazing.
TIER 1 (Projected 2010 #’s in bold)
1. Albert Pujols STL – 2009’s top fantasy performer is this year’s Number 1. The Machine continues to produce year in, year out. In ‘09, he put up .327-43-135-124-16 a year after off-season elbow surgery. He had surgery again this off-season to clean up some more. Matt Holliday just got paid to play Robin. Will St. Louie have enough cheddar to keep their Batman? Redbird fans better hope so. His 3 year avg. reads something like this: .337-39-118-108-8. That was with no protection and playing through a bad elbow. His elbow is now healthy and he has a respected bat behind him in the lineup. Watch out. .345-45-130-110-10 could have this Prince wearing a (Triple) Crown in 2010. Oh yeah, this Bruce Wayne, or should I say Clark Kent, also had a .443 OBP last year and slugged .659 = 1.101 OPS. Wow.
TIER 2
2. Prince Fielder MIL – The second Prince on our list is a king in his own right. This son of Cecil provides a punch with his rock solid body and massive swing. Last year, he had his best overall year with .299-46-141-103. With another year in this lineup and Braun in front of him, Fielder should produce another stellar term sitting on the Milwaukee Throne. .296-43-118-103-3.
3. Miguel Cabrera DET – Hopefully for Tiger fans, this young man has turned the page in maturity chapter. Hopefully for fantasy fans, this young man continues to rake the baseball. Miggy will continue to hit, give Jim Leyland a beast in his lineup and give Detroit something to cheer for this summer. Look for .311-34-114-92-4.
4. Mark Teixiera NYY – Fresh off his first championship ride with the Yankees, Big Tex will look for a repeat of 2009. Plays Gold Glove 1B (doesn’t score fantasy points), hits form both sides, hits for average, power. What else do you want in a player? .294-33-128-98-2.
5. Ryan Howard PHI – If you haven’t been recently, you might want to start eating fresh. This Subway spokesman has put HR totals of 58, 47, 48, 45 in his last 4. He will only bat about .265-.270, but who cares when you get .268-44-141-104-4 from this tree trunk. I have him ranked here, but like any year, projected numbers are just that, projected. Howard could end the season as the #2 behind Albert. It wasn’t the shoes with Jordan, I don’t think its the subs with Howard. Or is it?
TIER 3
6. Adrian Gonzalez SD – If this guy played in New York, he’d be named Mark Teixiera. Instead, this lefty slugger plays in lovely San Diego with no Ron Burgundy’s or Brian Fantana’s riding shotgun. He has a bat to match his Gold Glove and he probably wished he had lineup to match as well (Giles, Kouzmanoff, Blanks). For years this guy continues to give The Padres everything he has. .285-33-100-90-0 are expected while having over 100 BB again. The sky is the limit for this Biggie when he finally gets traded to a contender sometime this summer or next off-season.
7. Joey Votto CIN – Votto had an unfortunate passing in his family and anxiety due to his father’s death changed his season last year. Hopefully, Joey is doing better and has been able to move on from such a traumatic event. Votto is seen as a potential breakout performer this year. 40/40 is expecting big things from this Canadian in 2010. He plays in a PlayStation ballpark large enough for high schoolers and should be ready to blossom this year. .301-26-101-76-7 will give them something to talk about north of the border.
8. Pablo Sandoval SF (3B) – The Kung-Fu Panda came onto the scene last year with splash after his highly anticipated arrival in 2008. He chopped his way to a .330-25-90-79-5 clip last year. Those are Matt Williams numbers my friends. I love what he is and what he brings to the game, but I don’t love his ballpark or lineup surroundings, even with DeRosa. Did I really just write “even with DeRosa”? This huggable teddy bear in 2010 who also qualifies at 3B. Bonus. .304-28-102-81-5 (These are the only projected #’s in the entire article I can’t get BOLD and its irritating me).
9. Mark Reynolds ARI (3B) – Another 2-position eligible corner infielder for you owners out there. This Diamondback had a career year last year, putting up .260-42-102-98-24. He batted .259, but 42/24! That’s what type of production we here at 40/40 love – power and speed. I don’t see a repeat, but .260-36-100-93-14 would be awesome.
TIER 4
10. Victor Martinez BOS (C) – VMART is our third multi-position eligible 1B in a row. He is now in a potent offense in Beantown and should thrive sandwiched in between Pedroia and Youkilis. He’s one spot above Youkilis because of his C eligibility having such an advantage over other C. Like we said, he produces at a better clip playing DH or 1B as opposed to C, but .298-30-100-100-0 are within reach.
11. Kevin Youkilis BOS (3B) – Another multi-faceted player, YOOK does a lot for the Sox and a lot for fantasy owners and is similar to VMART. 2 POS. 1B. 3B. Gritty. Intense. Great glove. .300-24-102-100-6 are all in play if this Swiss Army Knife stays healthy.
12. Justin Morneau MIN – His season was cut short last year and Morneau is ready to kick the tires and light the fires. He should rebound in 2010, but temper expectations. Like Mr. Mauer, Morneau must move outdoors in Target Field and will have to deal with colder temperatures and frosty bat handles dontcha know. .288-30-106-88-0.
13. Kendry Morales ANA – Finally getting into the starting lineup, Morales did not disappoint. He was always touted as a high-level prospect in the Anaheim system and got his shot with the departing of Teixiera. His power numbers should come down a bit, but expect some good numbers from this 27-year-old potential breakout performer. .286-26-96-90-3.
TIER 5
14. Lance Berkman HOU – Possibly one of my favorite nicknames, The Big Puma is now a seasoned vet. He tends to be right around the same numbers across the board. Anticipate about .290-28-96-86-8 for this switch-hitter in a quiet Houston lineup now missing Miggy.
15. Adam Dunn WAS (OF) - Usually automatic for 40-100-100, Dunn produced 38-105-81 last year for the Nats. He still has that natural beast power and should hit .261-39-103-79-2. His avg. was .267 last year, .240 is not unheard of. A great handcuff to a guy like Ichiro, Wright, or Pedroia; guys who give you a .300 avg. and 20SB to offset Dunn’s propensity to go down swinging and Molina-type speed.
16. Derrek Lee CHC – Another guy that fits the Berkman mold, DLEE should put up numbers similar to .290-28-92-90-5 for Sweet Lou in The Chi.
TIER 6
17. Carlos Pena TB – Adam Dunn of the AL from a fantasy perspective. .245-38-108-88-2 for this free-swinging Ray.
18. Billy Butler KC – This former 1st Round Pick finally broke through last year, posting totals of .301-23-98-78. He’s still a young’n and will continue to develop into that power guy the Royals so desperately lack. Could be a sleeper with major upside. Could be another Royal flameout. I think not. His minor league trends suggest this 24-year-old will be just fine learning on the fly. .292-28-92-82-2.
19. Michael Cuddyer MIN (OF)- I have him ranked here because this Twin also provides OF eligibility just like #20 on our list. He got major playing time last year with Morneau out, but expect Cuddyer to see his fair share of AB since he mashes LHP and is the only RH with LH Mauer, Morneau and Kubel. Shouldn’t match career year last year, but could come close if he had the PT. .272-24-88-78-6.
20. Garrett Jones PIT (OF) – This real life Crash Davis finally hit the scene as a 28-yr-old rookie and hit his way into the lineup. After 10 years in the minors, Jones launched 21 HR for the lowly Bucs in a shortened season. He qualifies at OF as well and should see AB. He might continue to kill pitching, he might become that 10-yr minor leaguer. Mid round flier might be worth a gamble. .268-26-76-62-15 I can see; maybe more RBI if the Pirate lineup, specifically McCutchen and Milledge, can set the table.
20a. James Loney LAD - Loney has not quite hit that 20-100 range the Dodgers were hoping for. It seems like owners are always drafting Loney, saying this is the year. However, he is only 25 and is still getting better. .296-16-92-62-6 looks attainable as a stat floor. The Dodgers hope Loney can follow and become that third, “young-guy” behind Kemp and Ethier this year.
EVERYONE ELSE
21. Jorge Cantu FLA (3B) 22. Todd Helton COL 23. Adam LaRoche ARI 24. Paul Konerko CHW 25. Nick Johnson NYY 26. Nick Swisher NYY (OF) 27. Chris Davis TEX 28. Martin Prado ATL (2B/3B) 29. Lyle Overbay TOR 30. Daniel Murphy NYM 31. Chris Carter OAK 32. Hank Blalock FA 33. Casey Kotchmen SEA 34. Ryan Garko SEA 35. Aubry Huff SF 36. Garrett Atkins BAL 37. Russell Branyon FA 38. Yondor Alonso CIN 39. Ty Wiggington BAL 40. Fernando Tatis NYM
The guys from 21-40 can usually be last round fliers or waiver wire guys. Most serve better as AL or NL-Only leagues (Swisher, Overbay, Murphy). No one is saying Konerko can’t be a top 20 1B next year or that super-prospect Yonder Alonso doesn’t deserve a late round pick in keeper leagues. And I love what Martin Prado and his 1B/2B/3B, .300 upside bring to any fantasy bench. But hopefully, most of these guys are on your bench, primarily used as injury replacements or rotated in during hot streaks.
